written by David Anglin

The Educated Guess...

The Educated Guess...

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Me, personally, I'm not into speculation I believe that more often than not it leads to being the mother of all f-ups, but when it comes to making educated guesses I believe this is fundamental to not only business, but life in general. If a new nightclub opens up and everyone who you talk to says that the club is really expensive drinks-wise, then you can make the educated assumption that if you ever go to this club that you'll need to bring tons of cash, credit cards and a bar of gold just to be safe ;-)

This is the benefit of an educated guess. It's based on facts from previous history, and in business, especially when it comes down to marketing you'd always be wise to look into the data of previous history and form a plan based on that.
For instance, if I've advertised a product to a defined audience on Facebook, let's say people who have interests in web development, business and tech, and out of 5000 none of them show any interest, then I can make the informed guess that for the particular product I'm trying to sell, I have targeted the wrong audience. But if I target another audience and out of 5000 people, 500 of them show interest through asking more questions about the product then I can start making the assumption that not only do I have the right target audience, but that if I showed the product to a further 20,000 people in this audience group, then I can assume that another 2000 people would show interest.

Though the numbers may not be exactly right, using sample sizes is away to work out information about people you've never interacted with simply by using existing data. It's how scientists can make fairly accurate guesses about a species simply by looking at sample sizes. This same methodology applies when marketing your product, select your audience group and see how they interact with your ad.
What I've found is that a sample size of 1000 people is usually a great number to make valid informed guesses from.

David Anglin

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